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WHAT IS IN PLAY?

The Premiership Title:  Level on 86 points, Man City (v QPR) has a goal difference of +8 on Man United (@Sunderland).  Basically, as long as City equal or better the result in the United game, they’re champions. It would take a bucketload of goals for United to win the crown by overcoming City’s goal difference, should the club both win/lose.

Champions League:  Three teams battle for that last two places.  On 67 points, Arsenal can clinch with a win or draw @ West Brom.  Spurs (66 pts) can clinch with a win v Fulham.  Newcastle (65 pts) must win @ Everton and have Spurs draw or lose, or Arsenal lose.  Should Newcastle draw or lose, Arsenal and Spurs walk into the CL regardless of the outcome of their own matches.  Got it?  Yeah, me too.

Relegation:  Adios to Blackburn and Wolves.  The final, unwanted spot is still up for grabs.  A win or a draw for QPR (37 pts) will guarantee survival.  Unfortunately, they play at City.  On 35 points, Bolton must win at Stoke and have QPR lose.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you Survival Sunday.

Well, I guess miracles can happen!  In honor of Roy Hodgson’s looming appointment as England boss, I give you a glimpse of the future of the Three Lions.  Sheer brilliance.

Check out the rest of the film after the jump.

Read the rest of this entry »

Saturday’s thrilling encounter atop La Liga provided the first act of a 3-part drama in Spain, Italy, and England’s top divisions.  And at the time, I figured it was the most legitimate race in the three leagues.  (Who had Man United drawing Everton 4-4 to give Man City control of their own destiny and the Premiership crown?  The same know-it-alls that claim to have predicted Milan dropping points this morning before Juve thrashed Roma, no doubt).

Heading into the Clasico, Madrid had a 4-point lead in the standings, with 4 more subsequent matchdays on the calender.  A Barca win, as most expected, would toss the two clubs right into the proverbial barbecue for a sensationally well done finish to the season (ugh, sorry).  The Catalan’s 3-1 victory over their rivals in December justified expectations of a similar result.  In case you live under a rock and missed it, or you know, have responsibilities and stuff, here’s how this one all went down (from my armchair).

• Teamsheets announced.  Cristian Tello starting for Barca.  Are they showcasing him for a big money move, or do they actually have the audacity to, gulp, rest players for the Champions League Semifinals?!  Pique, Sanchez, and Fabregas also find themselves on the bench.  Surely they’re taking the mickey here?
• Spare a thought for Pedro, who seems to be the invisible man.  David Villa is practically a paraplegic and Pedro still can’t earn a start.  Two years ago, this would be unthinkable.
• Real, on the other hand, field what’s probably their strongest lineup.  Higuain finds himself on the bench to accommodate Benzema’s red hot form.  Would YOU drop this man?

• Coentrao is my player to watch for the visitors.  Struggled a little midweek in Munich, has to be said.  I think he’ll be a good barometer here.  If he can be unleashed, Real will win.  If he’s pinned back with defensive duties, it will be all Barca.
• Any residual effects for Barca from the Chelsea debacle?  Let’s see!
• Game on.
• It’s an early physical battle for both teams.  Hope the ref is up for it.
• Real on the front foot now; you get the sense they want an early “Mourinho lead.”
• Someone needs to get Victor Valdes some Dollar Shave Blades.  Vic, your facial hair, woof.
• Pepe sloppily gives the ball away, and Casillas does well to pip Alves to a 1v1.  Very nearly a breakthrough there.
• Nice shot of Mourinho on the bench, arms crossed defiantly.  He looks significantly older today.  Life under the microscope has aged the Special One, it seems.
• Benzema making Adriano look like Bambi on ice, but only musters a tame shot from the edge of the area.  Could be a matchup to exploit for Madrid.
  

  Benzema and Adriano

• Tello’s offside but he didn’t know it as he glided around Arbeloa to work a nice effort.
• GOAL KHEDIRA: 1-0 Madrid.  Wow, that was ugly. Valdes does a 1920s flapper imitation as Pepe directs a corner goalbound.  Valdes and Puyol unable to clear and Khedira somehow bumbles it home. 17th minute.
• You’d prefer to see a prettier goal in such a marvelous encounter, but the German is celebrating like he’s done unbelievable tekkers.
• Iniesta has been Barca’s best player so far.  Messi’s been sharp, but quiet. Only a matter of time before he erupts…
• Commentators describing Sami Khedira as a “former German Youth Captain.”  Uh, anyone else a little uncomfortable with that description?
• Barca’s faith in their width is inspiring.  But still not paying dividends.  Evenly contested but lively match nearly a third gone.
• Xavi pulls a sitter wide!  Messi brilliantly slipped Xavi through for a close range 1v1 with Casillas.  But the (smaller) Spaniard perhaps waited too long to pull the trigger, before drawing the shot left.
• Ozil has been strangely anonymous.  Actually, I feel anonymous.  I’ve been mesmerized by the methodical ticking and tocking of the last 5 minutes.  Hypnotic stuff.
• There are some (mildly) surprisingly impressive attributes on display.  Things you know about, but always catch you off guard when you see them:  Tello’s pace, Benzema’s strength, Messi’s left boot, Ronaldo’s change of direction…   I just realized, I could list these all day.
• Ozil works around the edge but his cut back is blocked.
• HALF TIME.   1-0 Madrid.
• Well, Barca do look spooked from the midweek defeat at Chelsea.  Out of sorts to some degree.
• 2nd Half gets underway.
• Immediately, Barcelona playing with purpose.  Those 3 points, wanting them, needing them, taking them.
• And then Ronaldo is almost through but the offside trap holds, barely.
• Here’s an interesting tidbit.  Both Messi and Ronaldo are level on 41 league goals.  I’m not advocating for Ronaldo’s claim to be the best player in the world (and the assists stat concurs), but shouldn’t the conversation be at least less lopsided, for this season?
• What’s Tello done?!  His diagonal run was picked out by Thiago but the youngster sidefoots the ball a mile off target.  Shameful stuff.
• Can Barcelona diehards even tell the difference between Tello and Isaac Cuenca?  I bet Ceunca could’ve thrown on Tello’s kit at the break and nobody would ever know.  I expect Disney’s Spanish branch to send me a royalties check when they make that movie next year.

• Nerves running rampant now.  One hour in the books and I’m sensing another breakthrough.  Way too many good attackers on the pitch.
• Xavi just wide.  Then subbed off.  What the hell?  Nobody is happy with Guardiola’s change, and you can count me as one of them.  Ray Hudson is on the verge of tears.
• GOAL SANCHEZ! 1-1.
• In the 70th minute, Barcelona find their equalizer.  Iniesta with a slick backheel to Tello, whose shot rebounds to the Chilean.  Sanchez makes no mistake sending it home, but it’s just as ugly as Khedira’s bumbling goal.  Like for like.
• GOAL RONALDO! 2-1 Real Madrid!
• Well, that didn’t last long.  Just 3 minutes later Ozil plays a gorgeous long ball into Ronaldo’s path, and the Greasy One coolly finishes near post, beyond the hopes of the caveman Valdes.
• This is Madrid’s game, surely.  They must milk another 20 minutes of clock for a famous victory, and I have no doubt they will try.
• My friend Cotter, who’s been watching with me, can sense it’s probably not going to be Barcelona’s day.  He starts muttering anti-Franco comments, glumly.
• Now Ronaldo’s rolling on the ground?  In the deep?  (Oh yeah, that’s why people take extreme pleasure extolling Messi as the unrivaled greatest).
• Barca struggling to create meaningful opportunities.  This like watching a dog walk on hind legs.  Got to be another goal here somewhere!
• Real milking with both hands.
• Sorry I’m getting short.  This is how these usually go.  In squeaky bum time, I start losing myself in the contest.  Here, I’ll throw you a bone.
• FUN FACT OF THE DAY: Did you know Kaka still plays for Real Madrid?  Okay, I’m kidding.  5 goals and 7 assists in La Liga is admirable.  But when your club pays a billion dollars to get you, and can’t rely on you in THIS game, I get the right to make fun of you.  Read your contract, Ricky.
• We’re in injury time now.  Barcelona keep passing, sticking to their principles even at the death.  They came back from a deficit in their first clash with Real by playing their game, but it’s not to be tonight.
• FULL TIME! 2-1 Madrid.

And now, Madrid go 7 points clear, with a Camino Real to the La Liga title.  The power appears to be shifting in Spain’s big rivalry.  Barca must lick their wounds, but cannot dwell on defeat.  Otherwise, the Catalans will lose their 3rd consecutive match when Chelsea visit midweek, in the all important Champions League.

It’s another Clasico in the books.  If you enjoyed this, feel free to look back on all my live commentary of World Cup 2010.  Or…look…forward(?) to my coverage of EURO 2012.

Onto the title races in England and Italy…

5-star documentary on the rise and rise of Lionel Messi.  It will be the best 45 minutes of your week, I promise.

Of course, you also have to give props to John Terry for making a similar effort at WC 2010.  And by similar I mean far less effective but far more salmon-like.

But if we’re on the subject of an entree denying a goal, look no further for the number one spot.  I cannot confirm that Blackburn and its sponsors had anything to do with the production of afore-linked video.  (Anfield Cat, you’re off the hook for today).

*****

He deserves a humor moratorium of much longer than a couple weeks, but let the Fabio Capello ( and Harry Redknapp) jokes commence!  Here are six brilliant (albeit NSFW) ones.

*****

Finally, how about Zlatan hitting a journalist with his Audi A3?  Awesome or super awesome?  Easy question– getting run over by an Ibravehicle is every blogger’s dream!

Great shot from van Nistelrooy a Leeds player.  Any doubts that the target was actually Robbie Savage though?

Credit to Keown for taking it in stride.  The same cannot be said for Harry Redknapp or Phyllis.

I dare you.

“Take your seaside arms and write the next line/ Oh, I want the truth to be known.”  So sang the immortal Tony Hadley in Spandau Ballet’s classic “True.”  Although there’s certain irony in this lyric, present in the fact that most people have no idea about the meaning behind the “seaside arms” lyric (HINT: it’s about Lolita), it resonates with me.  Just get on with it and throw the truth out there.

That’s pretty much what everyone wanted to yell at UEFA who delayed the draw of EURO 2012 by an hour so they could inhale their own smugness.  Look, I’m a nostalgic.  I’m all for botox-like injections of pomp and circumstance at every avenue possible, but when you’re waiting for the draw of a major tournament, sometimes you just gotta get on with it.  Take your damn seaside arms and deliver us the future.  Heeding my own (and Mr. Hadley’s) advice, I’ll just cut to the chase and throw my instant reactions to the EURO 2012 draw out there.  In no particular order, here are 21 thoughts as follows.

*****

… I don’t care what he does or looks like the rest of his life, I will always be intrigued to watch Zinedine Zidane do anything.  Drawing plastic balls pretty much fits that description.

… Group A might be the weakest group I’ve ever seen in a EURO/WC.  (Group G in WC 2006 was relatively weak, but really this type of gash hasn’t been witnessed since Group A of WC 1994– with apologies to Hagi).  Poland-Greece isn’t exactly the marquee opener everyone was awaiting.  Russia and Czech Republic are shadows of their former selves as well, unfortunately.

… Which brings us to my rant for the day.  I don’t care what the alleged purists say, the World Cup is more difficult to win than the Euros.  First of all, the Euros don’t have Argentina, Brazil, or Uruguay.  That’s 7 World Cup winning teams (out of 19 World Cups) that you aren’t watching compete.  Also, the Euros have only half the field.  That’s one more round to slip up in or run into another giant in the World Cup.  Sure, some weaker teams from Asia/Africa/America slip in, but they don’t always roll over like they’re supposed to, do they, Italy? (WARNING: Limp Bizkit is featured in the video).

… Texted my friend Toubs about Russia.  I told him he had to love that draw.  He agreed, but mentioned how much pressure it puts on them to progress.  Noted.  I also just checked out the Russian squad, and given the form of Arshavin and Pavlyuchenko it’s some surprisingly smelly poop.  Look, I’m not advocating a return to the Soviet Union, but if you could borrow a few players from neighboring states, well…

… Bert van Marwijk makes me flat out uncomfortable.  I don’t want to speculate, but I’m almost positive he’s some sort pervert.  (Look at the above photo and disagree at your own peril).

…  Group B features Netherlands, Germany, Portugal, and Denmark.  Forget my rant about the World Cup being harder.  It’s destroyed.  Done.

… Seriously, what a group!  Every game is a must watch.  All 4 are legitimate contenders, it’s kinda sad that two of them won’t be playing after 8 days.  I’m still speechless at this Group of Death.  Give me a minute to digest Group B, then I’ll get back to you.

… I hope we get Roberto Martinez as a pundit like we did for the World Cup.  He’s a pretty intelligent and articulate analyst, and his managerial stewardship deserves more wins than it currently has.  If Wigan go down, it could actually be a blessing for his career.

…  Okay, Group C is a bit more normal.  Spain, Italy, Ireland, and Croatia.  Some good storylines here.  Giovanni Trapattoni dominates the attention with a major test against his birth country.  They aren’t flashy, but Ireland have been formidable in Euro qualifying as they were in 2010 WC qualifying.  (Don’t look now, but should they progress, a possible rematch with France looms).  In theory Spain should cruise to the top spot, although it’s worth repeating they lost their World Cup opener 2 years ago.  Italy will want revenge on the Spanish after their 2008 defeat in a shootout.  Croatia are the only team without something to prove/avenge, which puts them in a quasi-comfortable position to progress.  That and Luka Modric.

Hello World

… I’d love to see David Silva given a chance to do for Spain what he’s done for Man City these last two years.  Especially because while nobody’s talking about it, the drop-off in form of both David Villa and Fernando Torres is a major blow to Spain.  If Fernando Llorente is your only striker operating on all cylinders, you can’t be the favorite to win EURO 2012.  Also, after winning EURO 2008 and World Cup 2010, there has to be some complacency setting in.  Ask France in 2002 about that.

… Fabio says Mario Balotelli will be the one to lead Italy to Euro glory.  Instantly, I hate Italy’s chances, but feel so compelled to watch all their matches.

… Okay, I’ve calmed down somewhat.  Back to Group B.  I feel like every time Holland plays Germany, they must recall the 1974 World Cup Final.  (Many people considered the Dutch Total Football to be possibly the greatest of all time, and their opening goal before a German could even touch the ball appeared to cement that notion.  Alas, 2 German goals secured the Cup and proved a preemptive death knell for Cruyff’s Total Football, as we know now in hindsight).  Van Basten’s smirk at the EURO 2012 draw, remembering his winner against Germany in EURO 88 en route to being crowned champion, seemed to indicate otherwise.  But I know the Dutch still have to lament the iconic failure against the Germans in 1974.  I do.

… How many times do Portugal and Denmark need to play each other?   It just seems incestuous at this point.

… Despite all this Group B drama, I still think Germany should be favorites to win the whole tournament.  Gotze is ready for his international coming out party; Neuer has proven the rightful successor of Oliver Kahn (finally);  if anything, Ozil’s time at Real Madrid has made him underrated again; and Mario Gomez has been surprisingly sharp for Bayern this season.  Keep that going with the regular stalwarts (get healthy, Schweini) and you have the team to beat right there.

… One little tidbit I might be the only one closely watching in Group B: the development of Christian Eriksen.  The Danish midfielder (now 19) was the youngest player at WC 2010, and has recently been named Danish Player of the Year.  If Denmark somehow escape the group, he’ll be the favorite for the nonexistent Young Player of the Tournament award.

… Hands up if you remember Portugal-Holland from World Cup 2006.  Yes.  Yes.  YES.

…  Group D, the last group: Ukraine, England, France, and Sweden.  The little bowl of porridge was juuuuust right.  Ukraine, as hosts, have that going in their favor.   That’s about it.  England should waltz into the quarterfinals; even their usual intrusive media coverage can’t screw this cakewalk up for Three Lions.  Sweden probably isn’t deep enough to progress, although Ibrahimovic seems to score one belter every Euro.  Like this.  Or this.  Oh yeah, and France.  We can only hope for the self destruction we saw in South Africa, but they’ll likely eek out of the group.  Don’t look now but Benzema is starting to live up to the hype from his Ligue 1 days.

… How many times do England and Sweden need to play each other?  And who is Sven rooting for?  Does anyone even care?

… Perhaps the most relieved person to see the Group D draw was Fabio Capello.  With an easy route to the quarters established, he can comfortably afford to include Wayne Rooney in his squad.  If Capello brought the 3-match suspended striker, and England failed to progress, you best believe the Italian would be Veal Milanese in the press.  Friday’s draw made his decision for him.

… A lot can happen from now until the summer, but let’s look at a few potential matchups in the quarterfinals.  Whoever comes from Group A will probably have a short tournament, with meetings against the Group B representatives established.  Poland-Germany would be a nice tie, because

1. Germany will no doubt have an excellent team.
2. Poland is a home nation with solid support.
3. That whole, uh, World War II thing.  Awkward.

Or, Greece-Portugal.  A rematch of the 2004 Final– the one where Ronaldo simply could not stop crying.  Holland v Czech Republic could also be a sizzling replay of my favorite match of all time.  The Czechs beating the Netherlands 3-2 in EURO 2004 is the only time I will ever bust out a VHS tape without shame.  As for the Group C and Group D tangles, the only matchup that immediately strikes me is the aforementioned possibility of Ireland-France.  I suppose Ireland-England would also carry heavy significance for the Islanders.  Italy-France would feature a rematch of fallen giants, the 2006 World Cup Finalists.  Wow, the more I look at it, if you win Group D you’re probably in the semifinals before you know it.  Which brings us to my last “thought.”

... Finally, let’s talk about the betting.  Here we go, here we go!  All the odds are as of today, via oddschecker (to find the most favorable).

• To Win it All.  First and foremost, I think you have to hedge any other bets by putting some cash on Germany at 7/2.  They’re so due to win a major tournament, and they rarely exit in the group stage (which is probably their biggest challenge).  You could also throw in Spain at 5/2, but as of writing I don’t see them repeating.  Your call.  England at 10/1 is enticing given the direct path from Group D.  Portugal at 25/1 is very intriguing; it’s simply the best return you can get on a team with a legit chance of winning the tournament.  Somewhat surprisingly, Denmark is the longest shot to win EURO 2012, at 125/1.  Behold the power of Group B.
• Golden Boot.  I hate David Villa at 7/1, currently the favorite in Vegas.  As discussed, he’s starting to show some age.  Mario Gomez, the co-favorite at the same odds, I feel much better about.  You know I don’t think he’s very skilled, but on form he’s exceptional at punishing teams.  Traditionally, 4 goals is usually good enough to win the G.B. at the Euros, and most of them come in the group stages against inferior opposition.  The fact that Group B is so tough is the only reason I’m not all-in on Gomez.  Van Persie at 10-1?  I love that.  If he’s healthy, I actually like him to net a hat-trick against the Danes.  Thomas Muller at 20/1 also has my attention, as does Balotelli at 24/1, Benzema at 25/1, Sturridge at 33/1, and Iniesta at 99/1.
• Others.  Come on.  I have to leave something for my official summer preview.
  

*****

EURO 2012, I can hardly wait.  I know this much is true.