Three Choices for Rafa

I have to apologize for leaving the last post on a bit of a cliffhanger.  What I had planned to be a simple explanation of why Liverpool are in their current sorry state became something else.  I won’t say rant, because that would be unprofessional (and hey I correctly used multiple SAT words), but it was definitely a title challenger in the Long Winded League.  I’ve since pondered the situation and am now ready to bring closure to the analysis of Rafa’s plight, as well as dish out some insightful backhanded compliments.

That’s right, I will now discuss how Liverpool resolve their immediate problems.  (You’ll find no mention of ownership, stadium construction, or the like, because those issues are playing elsewhere in the Long Winded Premiership).  Rafa, write this down.

In part one, I hinted at two directions Rafa could go: “Import a replica of the Bearded Basque, or tailor your tactics to better fit the current players.”  But I’ll expand on what I mean, as well as add a third possibility.

1. Purchase an Alonso Replica

The simplest thing to do would be to ask Real Madrid really nicely if they’d let Liverpool have Alonso back.  But Florentino Perez doesn’t trike me as the forgiving type, so Rafa must look elsewhere.  He must locate and buy an authentic deep-lying player, one who can effectively contribute to attack while remaining in his favored defensive formation.  Think Andrea Pirlo but younger, and possibly with a man’s name.  This player must already be comfortable playing just as Alonso did-  no conversion from another position BS.   Under the current system, Rafa plays non-traditional wingers (Kuyt, Benayoun, Maxi) as wide men.  Which isn’t bad in itself, but it heaps importance on an immaculate trio of central midfielders.  There’s the explosive attacker (Gerrard), the ferocious ball winner (Mascherano), and the Alonso role.  Find one player to fill that missing link, and Liverpool return to last season’s form.

2. Change Philosophy about Prioritizing Defensive Shape

Stop obsessing about “controlling the game,” you psycho!  Sounds simple, but Rafa has spent six years building to do just that.  It would take a complete overhaul of tactics, strategy, formation, player selection, substitutions, practice structures, everything.  I won’t pretend that this is an easy task, but it’s what top managers must be capable of doing.  Even Harry Redknapp does it to success…(yes, that’s backhanded compliment #1). And listen to the benefit: it costs Liverpool absolutely no money.  Nothing.  That’s what the change is all about.  Altering the team’s playing style to maximize the resources (players) that Rafa currently has available.  No “transfer kitties” or “war chests” or any storybook euphemism for spending cash.

3. Acquire (and play) Genuine Wingers

REAL wingers.  REAL REAL GOOD wingers, to be precise.  Ribery and Robben would both fit the bill, and I didn’t even have to look past one team.  But I’m about to, in order to enact backhanded compliment #2.  Manchester United, the words make me sick just to write them.  But I believe in “Know thy Enemy” and I know a dirty little secret about them.  They compensate effectively for a “meh” central midfield by employing explosive, genuine wingers.  Doing so de-emphasizes the reliance on the CMs, and stretches the point(s) of attack against determined opposition.  Now, while this sounds like it must coincide with my second point, it actually does not.  If you get legitimately dangerous wingers, you simply play them ahead of Kuyt/Maxi/Benayoun and watch Liverpool reap the benefits.  You don’t alter anything, just trust them to operate as they know how.  This brings up an important side note, before we wrap things up.  I don’t have any gripes with the aforementioned faux-wingers, at all.  They’re all really number tens, playing wide.  They don’t complain, they expend great effort, and each one has a formidable skill set.  Sound familiar?  Yes, all three of them fall under the Riise Corollary.  Not exceptional enough at the position Liverpool needs them, but too talented at certain things to be left out of the team.  If you buy some class wingers and play them, it automatically sorts out that enigma.

So there we go.  Three (almost) quick fixes or varying cost and effort to Liverpool’s short term problems.  And now, a moment of silence for Rafa’s decision to change nothing and continue giving upbeat press conferences.

Who do Liverpool fans blame?

Tags: Alonso, Benitez, Liverpool, Prisoner's Dilemma

Is it too early to do a season review for Liverpool?  To be fair, the season has been over for the Reds for months now.  Even if they go on to lift the Europe League trophy, there’s only so much confetti a year of diuretic performances can hide behind.  Fernando Torres is thinking about the World Cup, Steven Gerrard is thinking about things I don’t even want to know, and Pepe Reina is thinking about his acceptance speech for LFC player of the year.  (Want a big neon marquee telling you your team wet the bed all season?  It’s your keeper claiming MVP).

One person whose head I’d kill to be inside, and certainly not for his hair, is Alberto Aquilani.  After years of loyal service to his boyhood club, the perennially underachieving Roma, he finally bit the bullet and moved to a bigger team (albeit an only slightly less underachieving one):  Liverpool, a rejuvenated stalwart in the Champions League, fresh off a title challenge last season.

Flash forward to today.  Roma sit inches from winning the Scudetto, Liverpool are suffering their worst season in recent memory, and Aquilani can’t even get in the side.  Part of me doesn’t feel too depressed for him (see picture), but his move has been majorly disappointing, to say the least.

Put a ring on it already, Alberto!

Now, the rest of this post presupposes that we can all accept that Rafa is a defensive manager.  Yes, in terms of stubbornness, but more importantly in his team selection.  Have all the detractors clicked away?  Good, we can continue.  I will now explain the simple reason why Liverpool are so much worse than last season, why Aquilani rides the dugout, and why these two issues remain to exist.  Actually, I already have.  Get it?

It’s all a matter of defensiveness.  Nothing about personal feuds, lingering unfitness, or Rafa’s paternal love for Lucas.  It’s purely systemic caution in Rafa’s squad.  That, and the unique nature of Xabi Alonso.

See, maintaining a set defensive shape (“controlling the game” in RafaSpeak) is Benitez’s first priority.  He feels the best chance to win games is by limiting the opposition’s attacks to the minimum, and thus attacking from within the framework of a defensive formation.  It sacrifices free-flowing buildups and movements (see Wenger, Arsene), but Rafa feels it’s efficacy proves itself over time via results.  I see no problem with this pragmatic style, as it indeed can be highly successful (see Sacchi, Arrigo or Special One, The).  But it requires the right personnel to make it work.

This is where Alonso pops into the conversation to say hola.  I’ve watched him play countless times over the past six years, and I still can’t tell you if he’s a defensive or offensive midfielder.  I mean, he certainly doesn’t advance far up the pitch.  But he doesn’t really chase and tackle well either.  He chips in a few goals, but he’s frequently labeled a “pass master.”  I can look at Gerrard and Mascherano and tell you the horse from the donkey, but Alonso is always a mule to me.  (I had this great joke about Rafa Benitez and Clint Eastwood in Two Mules for Sister Sara, but upon further inspection it wasn’t that great.)

In simple terms, Liverpool worked last year because Alonso provided both attack and defense, suitable to Benitez’s style.  He played deep and maintained the favored defensive positioning.  He didn’t need to make furious tackles because A) that was Mascherano’s job and B) Rafa’s defense is more dependent on shape than athleticism.  But the real beauty of Alonso is that he attacked from this withdrawn position.  With his lengthy range of passing, he contributed to the offensive moves without needing to be up the pitch, in close proximity to them.

Alberto Aquilani, while less versatile, can be even more creative and potent in attack than Alonso.  He just needs to be physically higher on the field to do so.  There’s really nothing defensive about him.  And that is why he watches (Brazilian, as in the wax) Lucas start ahead of him every week.  It’s Rafa’s belief in his system of prioritizing defensive shape that leads him to sacrifice the attacking graces of Aquilani.

Spot Xabi Alonso and win a prize!

And that’s just the microcosm of center midfield.  The same theory can be applied to Rafa’s outlook on match outcomes.

It’s become clear to me that Rafa takes a Prisoner’s Dilemma mentality into Liverpool games.  Don’t ask me to break down the game theory, because this post is already girthy enough, but understand that Rafa appears to adopt the following view of how Liverpool matches could possibly transpire, based on the type of team he selects. *(NOTE: I don’t believe Rafa would refute the fact that one of the following  choices could yield a completely unpredicted outcome, but the probability is unlikely, and Benitez is all about playing the odds anyway)*

1. Best Case Scenario: He fields an all-out attacking team and Liverpool get a comprehensive win.
2. Respectable Scenario: He fields his safe/defensive/ugly team, and Liverpool win by a slight margin.
3. Respectable Scenario: He fields his safe/defensive/ugly team, and Liverpool lose by a slight margin.
4. Worst Case Scenario: He fields an all-out attacking team and Liverpool get ravaged.

(Also, a draw would go to scenario 2 in cup competition, or to scenario 3 in the league.  But it’s right there in the middle).

Basically, in Rafa’s head, it’s worth it to field a “safe” team (and thereby sacrifice the most positive outcome for Liverpool) in order to avoid the worst case scenario.  The reasoning behind such could be a number of things: playing not to lose his job, lack of confidence in the ability of his team to achieve scenario 1, overconfidence in his safe team to produce more 2′s than 3′s.  I couldn’t tell you.  What I can say with certainty is that Rafa continues to abide by this philosophy, regardless of criticism or results.  (I suppose if he gets sacked, he’s always got a future in Vegas).

It’s no guarantee that adopting a more attacking side will yield more success, but there’s not much to lose by trying, is there?  With no direct replacement to the attacking-defensive-midfielder Alonso, something’s got to change.  And I’ve thus far neglected to mention the psychological impact all this must be having on someone like Aquilani, which serves as only another reason to give the creative players a go at this football thing.

So, Rafa, the choice is yours.  Import a replica of the Bearded Basque, or tailor your tactics to better fit the current players.  Stop being as stubborn as an Alonso, and bust all of us Liverpool fans out of your prison!

The camera’s caught the injured Wayne Rooney trying to sneak a pint at the recent Man United-Chelsea game.  He looks all set to enjoy a tasty lager before realizing the lenses just might be focused on him.

As, well, he would say, SNARED!