The group stages are over.  The dead weight has drifted downriver with the current of tarnished pedigrees, unpolished upstarts, and victims of circumstance.   What was once a raw cornucopia of 32 teams has been whittled down to 16 diamonds of the sharpest variety.  Make no mistake– it takes talent, desire, and grit to advance from your group at the World Cup.  There are no supremely “lucky” teams playing anymore.  Every team you watch from this point deserves, has earned the right of your viewership.

While I plan to talk in length about what we’re yet to see in the WC, I’ll do so more explicitly in the preview section of each matchup.  (As I have been doing but in greater detail– if you don’t know, now you know).  At this point, I think the 48 matches we’ve witnessed merit some discussion and reflection.  So let’s take a little look back on what we’ve learned, and maybe if you’re good a slight peek at the future.  Maybe.  Shall we?

My World Cup Champions Prediction:  Before the tournament I picked the three teams I thought had a legitimate chance of winning everything–  Holland, Argentina, and Spain.  I think it’s fairly safe to say I didn’t get this one wrong (phew).  I mean, they all still have a chance, don’t they?  Only two teams went a perfect 3 for 3, 9 points accrued from the group stages– the Dutch and the Argentinians.  You’d have to be Hater of the Year (think Silky Johnson circa 2004) to claim a team that goes perfect isn’t in a great position to be contesting the Finals.

Gelson Fernandes: The Scourge of Spain

And Spain?  Well, that Switzerland debacle certainly put a little scare and some major groans into more than a few Spaniards.  But they were/are simply too good not to advance.  Hell, they still won their group.  I’m not as confident in them going all the way as I was (definitely stuck on the difficult side of the bracket) but they survived their first big test.  I’m not ready to give up on them, and I’d advise you maintain a similar position.  Remember EURO2008, when they were penalty kicks away from being dumped out by Italy in the quarterfinals?  Every championship team has a gut-check hiccup that they overcome.  Spain may have yet another ahead of them, but all the tools to overcome it.

Any teams I’d add?  Well, it would be the ultimate jinx to say the United States, but…. Let’s just say, they have a very doable road to the semifinals.  However, the Americans have made a habit of making the mundane sooooo dramatic, I wouldn’t put it past them to struggle with Ghana.  More on that in a later post.   Other than that, no one else I’d put my weight behind to win it all.  Yes, I know who I’m snubbing.  More on that, RIGHT NOW!

The Brazil Situation:  I don’t know if it reads, but I meant this title as a parody of Pulp Fiction‘s ‘Bonnie Situation.”  Felt compelled to tell you.   Back to the matter at hand.

I’m not overly impressed with Brazil.  Yes, they’re good.  Okay, they’re very good– but so are a lot of teams.  Italy and France were very good, in their own ways, and look at them.  They ain’t got no alibi…  Brazil won the Group of Death, which I definitely got wrong, but I think it’s a misnomer to use “Death” next to Group G unless you’re talking about what might face the North Korean players returning home in failure (I joke, I hope).  If the Ivory Coast wasn’t such a massive disappointment, things could’ve turned out much differently.  (Perhaps this section should be called “The Ivory Coast Situation”)?

The IC were flat against a Portugal side happy to take a draw in the opener (guess they had higher expectations for the Africans too), abysmal and uninspired versus Brazil, and could only score 3 goals against a Korean side that had just been mauled 7-0 and were mailing it in from Pyongyang.  Brazil and Portugal were in the round of 16 before it even began.

Brazil didn’t thrash anyone.  They never had to either, I guess.  I don’t have any convincing metrics to sway you to my side, but I can offer you the fruits of my “eye test.”  The consensus weakest side at the tournament came close to beating them, and I can swear that Brazil were outplayed for good portions of this match.  Then Ivory Coast went limp as mentioned and Brazil got a decent win (fair play there).  Then when they played a team that actually turned out to be a big team, they were held 0-0 by the Portuguese.

People get dazzled by the Brazilians’ pieces of flair and artistry, but I wonder how much substance is there.  Both Korea and Portugal fall in the mold of cagey, positionally disciplined teams– both gave Brazil some alarming problems.  What happens when Brazil needs to beat a team that’s capable of that and counterattacking?  (Oh my god, that’s Chile).  I’m not convinced.  I have the same vibe I did when I saw them in 2006.  That’s basically what it comes down to.  I don’t see the resolve, yet.  Yet.

Wrong Flair

All 5 South American Teams Advanced:  Wow.  I didn’t see this coming.  At least not Uruguay.  I’ve been impressed with Uruguay (read my commentary and you’ll think I’m a closet Uruguayan), but this might be an Ivory Coast addendum.   France were, well, how do you say…

France = Trainwreck:  Italy and the Ivory Coast gave them a major run for their money, but France surpassed all my hopes for a disastrous campaign.  Here’s what I wrote before the tournament.

(NOTE: This France squad is going to be an absolute soap opera in South Africa.  Angry Muslim WAGS, inter-squad romance with a single prostitute, an incompetent superstitious manager ["Leo's don't make good defenders"], and the whole world believing the French cheated their way into the World Cup.  John Terry and Ashley Cole should send them a card.  Can’t wait).

"Who's Coming with me?!"

Never in my wildest dreams did I think the problems would be football related.   But I loved every second of it, and I’m not even Irish.  Sign #658 that Karma exists.  The only sad part is knowing that some superstitious idiot wasted a golden generation of players.  I hope Laurent Blanc reinstates Evra as captain with his first act of power– if only to send a message that Domenech’s reign of terror has truly ended.

Best TEAMWORKING Teams to Root for:  I almost used the term underdog, but it’s not entirely accurate given my choices.  First, let’s hear it for Japan.  No one gave you a chance and there you are playing Paraguay with a good shot of reaching the quarterfinals.  Only a superb Holland team beat you, 1-0.  You have free kick specialists and the resolve I suggested Brazil lacked (just not nearly the talent).  Don’t tell Miller but I’m hoping for a Japanese victory.  *Special mention goes to South Korea in this hardworking category.*

HOMER ALERT!  I’m picking the US as another “can’t help rooting for” side.  I mean, last gasp goals and dramatic comebacks sort of endear our team to any neutral.  We finished above the European powerhouse in the group, and continue to be the team nobody can kill off.  *Special mention goes to Slovakia for doing the same to Italy.*

The “We knew you’d be decent, but wow” award goes to Uruguay.  Deserved group winners, conceded 0 goals.  Impressive.  Forlan has been excellent for them to boot.  *Special mention goes to Chile for challenging Spain.*

Darkhorse Team:  This gets a separate section from my Winners Predictions, because I don’t count them among my favorites.  But if there was ever a team that could sneak into the WC Final, it’s Germany.  It feels awkward to call a team that won 4-0 a darkhorse, but I’m doing it.  The Germans are like bacteria (um, no offense?); no matter what’s crumbling and dying around them, they endure.  Germany is always around at the end of major tournaments and if it holds true they’d have already knocked off their deadliest historical adversaries (England and Argentina).  Just a thought.

Maicon’s Goal Was Definitely Unintentional:  No question.  Many people are saying that he meant it because “you don’t cross a ball with the outside of you foot.”  Two things.  First, it’s Brazil, which means everything is done fancifully unconventionally (or just look at Quaresma of Portugal cross a ball).  Second, you’re right.  You don’t cross a ball like that unless you mess up.  Any player can tell you that when you’re running too fast and you try to cross– you end up scuffing it with the outside of you foot a la Maicon.  He had just looked up to pick out his runner and skewed it.  (See this is another reason why people go gaga over Brazil and I don’t).

Breakout Players That’ll Get Big Offers:  In no particular order…  Vincent Enyeama, Eljero Elia, Alexis Sanchez, Gervinho, Fabio Coentrao, Gio Dos Santos, Mesut Ozil,  Michael Bradley, and Fabio Quagliarella (maybe).

Best Player:  Hmmm.  No clear choice.  Messi looked the best but couldn’t score for the life of him.  Villa scored three big goals and helped support my Torres/Villa theory, so I’m high on him.  Forlan, Tiago, and Sanchez have been great but they benefit from lower expectations.

More likely to score a World Cup goal than Mario Gomez

Worst Player:  It’s hard to pick, so I’m choosing “most disappointing.”  The irony is that I’m giving it to a player still active in the World Cup, so I’ll end up looking stupid when he scores the winning goal in the Final.  Mario Gomez, who’s living off his Stuttgart form from 2 years ago– take a bow son.  The faster Klose returns, the better.

*****

That’s all you get for now.  I already have some good candidates for Goal, Moment, and Team of the Tournament, but those will have to wait until she’s all said and done.  Hey, it SAYS abbreviated right in the title, yeah?

If you didn’t notice, that’s your cue–  stop reading this and go enjoy the World Cup!

This could be a spontaneous little day.  Strange to to say that, considering Brazil are already assured of progression to the knockout rounds and North Korea are heading home.  But they still have important roles to play in which team will accompany Brazil.

Brazil are on 6 points.  A win or a draw and they’re top of the group.  A loss and they’re the runner-up.  (With Spain potentially finishing 2nd in their group, losing today might not be so bad– but we’ll leave that out o the equation and assume Brazil wants to win their own group).  In their way?  Portugal on 4 points.  Only a win will see them take top spot, or else its runner-up.

Unless….  Here’s where it gets crazy.  The Ivory Coast, one 1 point, can beat the pointless North Koreans today and draw level with the Portuguese on points if Brazil beats their former colonizers.   However, Portugal currently have a +9 goal differential to the Africans which they’d would have to overcome.  So the Ivory Coast doesn’t just have to beat North Korea; they’ve got to obliterate them.  No guarantee against the unpredictable Asians, but it’ll be fun to see the Africans try.

Let’s not forget the fact that we’ve got Brazil-Portugal as a spectacle.  That’d be the connoisseurs choice to watch today, but Ivory Coast could wield more goals against a team that’s already conceded 9.

As always, forgive my typo disease and hit refresh every few minutes to get live updates to my commentary:

• Lineup time–Gervinho and Drogba start for IC, as do the brothers Toure and Eboue.  No point in playing defensively.  Couldn’t tell you if North Korea have made any changes.
• Pepe returns for Portugal.  He’s listed as a midfielder, we might see some of his trademark swashbuckling runs.
• Dani Alves plays at RM right ahead of Maicon at RB.  I don’t envy Fabio Coentrao today– that’s pretty frightening.
• Kaka suspended, Nilmar in.  Robinho rested, Julio Baptista starts.
• Here we go.
• Brazil in control.  Ronald doing completely (gasp) unnecessary stepovers.
• Sweet tournament, Sven.  Just needed to get my dig in before I forget.
• GOAL IVORY COAST! 1-0 after Yaya Toure turns and slots one in the back post.  Hello, here we go…
• Alves testing his shooting range.
• Coentrao has been the best leftback at this World Cup and he’s playing at his best again today.  His price is skyrocketing.
• GOAL IVORY COAST!  2-0 thanks to Romaric.  He’s the tap-in predator after a Drogba thunderbolt careens off the bar.
• Sweet comeback, Sven.
• Julio Baptista was born with a heavy first touch.  It’s amazing he got so heavy assuming he couldn’t stop himself from kicking his bottle out of his crib.
• Nilmar off the crossbar!  Sorry.  Nilmahhh off the crossbahhh!  He slipped in behind Portugal to meet a diagonal ball.  Close.
• Maicon and Alves having a shooting competition.  Seriously.
• Gervinho inches wide!  A nice give-and-go releases him down the right and he pulls it too far.
• Fabiano wins a header but can’t find the top corner.
• Pepe’s playing physical.  He should watch himself or he’ll cut his own return short with a red.  Booked for now.
• That’s 6 yellows shown so far in BRA-POR.  A bit testy.
• Felipe Melo off, Josue on.  Smart move by Dunga to keep his player from doing something stupid and costly.
• Yellow for Coentrao.
• Halftime, both games.  2-0 Ivory Coast, o-o between Brazil and Portugal.
• It’s a Mexican ref that’s issued 7 yellow cards– he’s never seen anything so physical in his life.  When a player goes down he blows his whistle.  Force of habit… To his credit though, he did book Tiago for diving in the box.
• Analysts on Ronaldo trying to do it all by himself:  “You wouldn’t be happy if he was your teammate.”  That’s your captain, Portugal.
• Second halves underway.
• Brazil giving the ball away uncharacteristically.
• Both games starting to lull.  Ivor Coast camping in Korea’s half.  Brazil and Portugal less than incisive.
• Meireles follows up a Ronaldo run but can’t find a way past the scrambling Julio Cesar into the open net.  Should’ve scored.
• Martin Tyler saying how Cesar is “pretty much regarded as the best keeper in the world.”  Not sure what world he lives in, but Casillas, Buffon, and Reina are all considered superior by everyone who isn’t Brazilian or an Inter supporter.
• Romaric unleashes a corker but can’t find the Ivory Coast’s 3rd goal.
• I’ve literally had nothing to talk about this half.  North Korea have a shot on goal, I guess.  Ronaldo is dribbling around a bit.  That’s about all.
• Carvalho– brilliant tackle on Baptista.  He’s injured and limping.
• GOAL IVORY COAST!  3-0 courtesy of Kalou.  A leaping finish.  Salomon Kalou?  Must’ve closed his eyes.
• Grafite on for Fabiano.  Wolfsburg in the house.  He doesn’t score ugly goals, that one.
• Eduardo does well to deal with a deflected shot from Ramires.  He’s still alert even in injury time.
• Fulltime, Ivory Coast beat North Korea 3-0.  Both teams out.
• Fulltime, Brazil and Portugal draw 0-0.  Both teams advance.

Boos filtering down on the Brazilians and Portuguese– bet they aren’t used to hearing that.  But it was pretty boring for a matchup between the #1 and #3 ranked teams in the world.  Still, it was enough for both of them to go through.  Brazil will play the runner-up from the Chile/Spain/Switzerland/Honduras group, and Portugal will have the champions of that Group H.  North Korea were burst by Portugal a game ago, but they can still take pride in coming so close to taking something from Brazil in the opener.  For the Ivory Coast it was too little too late.  With their fate already out of their hands, they finally turned it on and must wonder how they let it all slip through their fingers.

Crazy day today.  Both the earlier two matches but also my schedule.  I’m running behind schedule, and I promise I’ll do the two early games this evening.  But for now it’s a pretty tasty one in Brazil v Ivory Coast.  Brazil can lock up progression with a win, but their opponents are no pushovers.  I’d picked Ivory Coast to top the group, so here’s to hoping they don’t make me look foolish.

As always, hit refresh to get updates of my running match commentary:

• Ivory Coast look strange in their green/white hoops.  African Celtic?
• Gervinho out, Drogba starting.  They’re going to need him to get on the scoresheet if they want to take this.
• Brazil start with early attacks.
• Spare a thought for Dani Alves.  Probably the only RB who would keep him out of a starting lineup does so regularly for Brazil.  A bit bittersweet watching Maicon’s stunner against North Korea, I bet.
• Kalou and Drogba link up for Chelsea, er, Ivory Coast.
• Spotted: Iraqi flag?  Can anyone confirm?
• I still can’t recognize Brazil at times.  Dunga has them playing his way, that’s for sure.  Robinho sometimes doesn’t get the memo, but I suppose you live with that as a coach.  Plus, the fans need to feel something of the Samba pulse.
• Brazil edging close but denied on two corner kick attempts.
• Here’s a fun fact.  3/4 of Brazil’s backline plays in Seria A.  You never hear it, but that might be their greatest strength– defense.
• Ivory Coast is playing a bit dull.  Obviously you want Drogba on the field at all times, but sacrificing Gervinho looks to have suppressed some of their creativity and energy.
• GOAL BRAZIL! 1-0 thanks to Luis Fabiano.  He’s scored the Landon Donovan from a Kaka pass to the right edge of the goal.
• Both Martin Tyler and myself made reference to Donovan’s goal but it makes me wonder:  do you think Fabiano tries that shot if he hadn’t seen Donovan do it with success two days ago?
• Getting Luis Fabiano going in attack is most imperative to Brazil’s success in this tournament.  More than Kaka or Robinho.  Dunga has to be pleased.
• I’m starting to think Lucio might be the best captain in this World Cup.  He has all the right elements of talent, personality, and experience.  I’m tying to think if there’s a better one…
• Ivory Coast sitting back, watching the Brazilians knock it around.  Let’s hope Sven has something else up his fresh-to-death white sleeve.
• Halftime, 1-0 Brazil.
• If Gervinho doesn’t come on soon, Sven will lose whatever grip he has on the Ivory Coast.  Brazil weren’t too inspiring but absolutely efficient.  They don’t look like they have a care in the world, which is how they ought to play.
• Maicon “hurt” early in the 2nd half.  And by hurt I mean missed his dive and won’t give up on selling it.
• GOAL BRAZIL!  Fabiano again makes it 2-0!  Absolutely stunning.  He beasted three Ivorians then volleyed past Barry.  He might’ve used his hand in his keepy-ups that broke him free of the defenders, but the goal stands.
• There was nothing there, no support, and Fabiano pulled that out.  Simply sensational.
• Drogba heads just wide.  He’s not throwing in the towel.
• Gervinho in for Dindane.
• Ivory Coast making forward runs, finally.  Still plenty of time, but Brazil are also like sharks.  Once one of them scores it only makes all the others even hungrier to get theirs.
• Kaka denied by Barry.  See what I mean?
• 3-0 thanks to ELANO!  He coolly finishes a Kaka cross from the left, beating a ball-watching Tiene in front of goal.  That’s just lazy by the Ivorian LB.
• Dani Alves on for an injured Elano.  Guaranteed he tries a long range shot within 4 minutes.  Start the timer.
• If Brazil score a 4th, I’m switching over to the US Open.
• Seeing how this game has gone, I’m really wondering if North Korea can get something against Portugal.  Wishful thinking maybe.
• …Dani Alves long range shot.  My apologies– it came within 7 minutes, not 4.
• DROGBA PULLS ONE BACK! 3-1 Brazil now.  He guides a chipped ball into the back post.  Lovely, but a little late now as we reach the 80th minute.
• Dunga looks like an Easter egg in his pastel shirt.  Announcers said his daughter designs his outfits, which also explains his woolly mammoth sweater last game.  “Happy Father’s Day, Dad.  I made you this ugly shirt!”
• Replay shows Drogba kissed Yaya Toure on the neck for his assist.  The Dubious Bromance Gesture Committee will have to take another look at that one.
• Zizou and Figo have seen enough from the box and make their exit.  For the record, ZZ was dressed in all black– bad to the bone.
• Kicking off between both teams.  Kaka looked the instigator… replay shows he did little actually.
• KAKA SENT OFF!  His second yellow in 5 minutes.  A disgrace by Keita who feigned a hand to the face, even though it was nothing more than jockeying for position.
• Ivory Coast launching balls in the box but time is almost up…
• Fulltime.  3-1 Brazil.

Strange match but Brazil are through.  The late goal allowed and Kaka red card sour the celebrations a bit, but it’s a good result for the South Americans.  Fabiano is back in form, which might ease some of the concerns.  Their Ivorian opponents were thoroughly outplayed from the first whistle, and now will watch Portugal-North Korea with heavy hearts, knowing they face an uphill battle now.

Late start for me, so let’s jump right into live blogging.  Hit refresh to get more nuggets of football goodness.

• Pepe on the bench, Bruno Alves and Carvalho get the start at the heart of the Portuguese defense.
• Drogba on the bench for Ivory Coast.  If he makes an appearance, he’ll have a lovely implement of destruction wrapped around his broken arm.
• Ronaldo complete dive, gets Zokora booked.  He goes and stars in all those commercials about the beauty of the sport, then has to resort to such ugly simulation.  Smashes free kick into wall, as is his custom.
• Fresher kit– Holland or Ivory Coast?  I’ll have to ask my mom.
• Ronaldo off the post, from deeeeeep.  Shot of Drogba on the bench, looking constipated.  Someone should tell Ivory Coast that’s one of the best players in the world (Ronaldo) out there, perhaps want to keep an eye on him, huh?
• Ronaldo trying to do everything.  As good as he is, this strategy still wasn’t enough to even win Portugal their qualifying group.  His teammates must get involved if they want to survive the Group of Death.
• Deco’s been such a stalwart for Portugal.  How would his career have fared if he pledged his allegiance to his native Brazil?
• Ronaldo told to get up by referee, then booked.  Harsh this time, as he was fouled.  Replay show’ Cristiano’s limited English is still intact.  Think that’s the reason for the yellow card.
• Every time I see Pedro Mendez, I expect Ben Thatcher to come running out of nowhere and elbow him unconscious.  Youtube that one for a good time.
• Gervinho looks like is The Predator.
• Just emailed to me.  “Lost at birth– Carlos Queiroz and Mitt Romney.”  Thoughts?
• If the Toure parents are here, what number would they wear on their jerseys?  Yaya in 19, Kolo is 4.  Maybe they compromise and just wear #11, Drogba’s shirt?
• As is becoming common this tournament, scoring chances are at a premium.  Ian Darke bigging up Brazil, how he expects them to win all thee matches.
• Halftime.  Nothing much to talk about.  I predicted Ivory Coast to win the group and Portugal to finish 2nd, so I guess this result suits me so far.  Ronaldo’s shot off the post seems like a lifetime ago, I’m convinced it was just a reverberation from Euro2008.
• Apparently there’s a video making the rounds of Adebayor’s mobile phone ringing during punditry of the Cameroon game.  UPDATE:  Linked it, but it’s a bit overrated.
• Kalou has the first real chance of the 2nd half.  Can’t beat Eduardo.  I was worried I’d have nothing to talk about until fulltime.
• Gervinho can only get a corner out of a breakaway…. Nothing comes of it.
• Fee-fi-fo-fum… here comes Didier Drogba.  Vuvuzela’s up the ante in the 65th.  Darke in pure ecstasy.
• Honestly, I reckon he scores.  It feels in the cards.  My phone is ringing but I can’t pull myself away from the screen.  Sven could look brilliant or foolish, depending on how he comes through this.
• Ronaldo nets after the whistle had blown.  Should be more careful on a yellow.
• Liedson biked Zokora in the chest.  Inches from awesome.
• Commentators just tried to link Sven to the Liverpool job.  Not even funny.
• Fabio Coentrao quietly having a good game at left back.
• Ian Darke AGAIN says the two teams out there probably both expect to lose to Brazil.  Little disparaging, isn’t it?  It’s not like we’re watching San Marino play the Maldives.
• Kolo Toure cramping up again.  Sven should have some Midol in his purse… or somewhere in that dope white track jacket.
• Drogba pulls a nice chance wide in stoppage time.  Everyone in orange having a go!
• Fulltime 0-0.

Staying alive in the Group of Death.  That’s priority number 1.  Both Portugal and Ivory Coast were able to do that, with the latter also keeping the health of Mr. Drogba intact (as important as the point).  It wasn’t one to win over the neutrals, but it’s all setting the stage for a dramatic finish to the group stages, which is perhaps even more compelling than the openers.   I promise goals in the late game today.

U2 playing in the background now, shots of Drogba and Ronaldo smiling, arm-in-arm… that’s my exit.